Posted By: Peter   Date: Thu Aug 14, 2008  

Title: New Model

Message:
  Could you show the "Probability of an Up Market" for both the new and current model?

  The UP probability for the current model is: 9.7 percent. The development model value is 90.9 percent. As stated earlier, the difference is related to the way the models view the large drop in commodity prices.

  Monday, August 18 Update: Recent validation studies are showing some problems with the developmental model. We will discontinue showing results of this model until these are resolved.