MarketTrak's Forecast of the SP500


SP500 Forecast Summary

  This Forecast was Published on:  Tuesday, 08/03/21 16:25 MDT

  Forecast is Based on Data Entered after the Close on:  Tuesday, 08/03/21

  1-Day Network Model Forecast for Trading on Wednesday:   CASH

  1-Day Network Model ANO Value:  -0.0513    [ version 51.0 since 02/14/2021 ]

  Long Position Setpoint:  0.100       Short Position Setpoint:  -0.100

  SP500 Close:  4423.15       SP500 Trailing Stop Setpoint:  not defined

  5-, 10-, and 15-Day Network ANO Values and Trends:   + 0.42     + 0.21     + 0.829  

  Swing Trade Model Forecasts with Signal Trends:

      DJIA [DIA]:  LONG   ,     SP500 [SPY]:  LONG   ,     NASDAQ 100 [QQQ]:  LONG  


NOTICE:  We need to take some time off from publishing this forecast to work on some new model ideas. We expect to be back on September 6. In the meantime, we will only update the forecast when time allows. If you use the forecast you should check the dates above to see if it is current. Visit our Twitter page for info updates. Also, your support by visiting an advertiser is much appreciated.

Notices/Comments:   Welcome back! 
Our 1-day network model moved to cash for trading on Wednesday. All three swing trade models remain long.



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Forecast Models:    There are four neural network models and three swing trade models. The models are optimized to maximize the total return over the last two months. All models are experimental and are presented here for information purposes only. Their accuracy, which varies considerably over time, is usually greater than 72 percent based on a 90 day average. Additional details about the neural network model are provided here.

All four neural network models forecast the SP500 and differ only in their forward slope length in days. Three of the four are long-term models and the fourth is a 1-day model. The interpretation of the long-term forecasts needs some discussion. The three long-term models ANO values and ANO trend strength arrows are shown in the Summary above. These forecasts are a prediction of the direction of the forward slope and therefore there will be a delay in the expected change in index prices. The delay is about one-half of the forecast horizon days away. This means that if the 10-day model goes negative today, we would expect the market to turn down in about 5 days. Click here for details on long-term slopes.

There are three swing trade models. One for the SP500, one for the DJIA, and another for the NASDAQ 100. The results of the forecast analysis of these three are shown above. Currently, these models will only be either long or in cash. This will change in the future. The swing trade model is quite different from the neural network model used to make the four SP500 network forecasts. The swing trade model is based on a decision table paradigm whereas the network model is based on a neural network architecture. A genetic programming algorithm is used to create a neural network. An evolutionary programming algorithm is used to create a decision table. The network model is a numerical calculation while the decision table is more logical than numerical. The swing trade model trades less frequently than a network model and its signal may lag the market by a day or two. The network model will anticipate the daily change in the market direction. The network model will do better in a volatile market while the swing trade model will do better in a trending market.

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Long-term models explained     Follow us on Twitter

Computing the Neural Network Forecasts:    We use an advanced neural network model and a genetic programming learning algorithm to create the neural networks used to forecast the direction of the SP500. The output of a neural network is a numerical value that ranges from minus one (-1.0) to plus one (+1.0), with -1.0 being a very strong indication of a negative slope over the forecast days and +1.0 being a very strong indication of a positive slope over the forecast days. For the 1-day model, the trading position we show in the Summary above is determined by computing an average network output value (ANO) from the individual networks and applying this average value to the setpoints which are also shown above. When this ANO rises above the long setpoint, a long position is given. When the ANO falls below the short setpoint, a short position is given. A cash position is indicated when the ANO lies between these two points. For the three long-term models, the ANO values are computed and shown in the Summary but position setpoints are not defined. A five percent trailing stop is given to reduce risk when either a long or short position is indicated.

The forecasts are updated after the session close and is usually posted here before 3:00 PM MT. Because of the timing of the update, trades may be made in the extended sessions or at open of the next trading day. Please read our disclaimer below.

Model Results: Trading results for the 1-day network model covering the last 165 trading days are shown in the two charts below. The vertical grid lines in these charts are 10 trading days apart.


The different color regions in the first chart correspond to the three possible trading positions. The second chart shows the trading positions as determined by the forecast model.



Performance Data:  Performance of the forecast model is shown in the table below. The results are given for three time periods. The first column of data shows results since the beginning of this year (Y-T-D). The second column of data shows results for the last 165 trading days, and the third column shows results for the last 45 trading days or about the last two months. The drawdown is the maximum drop in any position's value during the total days shown. The table below and the charts above show blind results after model version date, which is given above in the Summary. Before that date, much of the data shown was used in training the networks and therefore the predictions indicated may not be representative of future behavior of the model. Page Top

Forecast Model Performance
 
 Y-T-D
 165 Days
45 Days
 Buy and hold return
  17.76 percent
  19.57 percent
  5.21 percent
 Forecast model return
  30.21 percent
  31.99 percent
  6.95 percent
 Max model drawdown
  4.01 percent
  4.01 percent
  2.53 percent
 Total stops
 0
 0
 0
 Days long
 100
 115
 25
 Days cash
 43
 46
 17
 Days short
 4
 4
 3
 Trading days
 147
 165
 45


Model Output Data:  The table below shows the results of calculations using our neural network forecast model. The data in the table were computed by averaging the results of more than 200 networks trained on 7800 days of stock market data.

Forecast Model Output (Last 15 trading days)

     Date      SP500      ANO      LONG     SHORT     CASH    POS
    210714    4374.30    0.8622    93.00     7.00     0.00    LONG   
    210715    4360.03    0.1741    58.00    42.00     0.00    LONG   
    210716    4327.16    0.1399    56.00    44.00     0.00    LONG   
    210719    4258.49    0.9653    98.00     2.00     0.00    LONG   
    210720    4323.06    0.0788    53.00    47.00     0.00    CASH   
    210721    4358.69    0.1506    57.00    43.00     0.00    LONG   
    210722    4367.48    0.2598    62.00    38.00     0.00    LONG   
    210723    4411.79    0.1205    56.00    44.00     0.00    LONG   
    210726    4422.30   -0.0880    45.00    55.00     0.00    CASH   
    210727    4401.46    0.0874    54.00    46.00     0.00    CASH   
    210728    4400.64   -0.0061    49.00    51.00     0.00    CASH   
    210729    4419.15   -0.0777    46.00    54.00     0.00    CASH   
    210730    4395.26    0.8181    90.00    10.00     0.00    LONG   
    210802    4387.16    0.9026    95.00     5.00     0.00    LONG   
    210803    4423.15   -0.0513    47.00    53.00     0.00    CASH   

    where:
    DATE is the date of the data entry,
    SP500 is the closing SP500 value for the date shown,
    ANO is the Average Network Output (see our model details),
    LONG is the percent of networks indicating a long position,
    SHORT is the percent of networks indicating a short position,
    CASH is the percent of networks indicating a cash position,
    POS is the trading position at the close.



Disclaimer:  Our models are experimental and can change at any time. You may use our forecast as long as you totally agree with the following terms and conditions: Our mission is to make our forecast the best available, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or profitability. We provide the forecast on an “as is” and “as available” basis without any warranty of any kind. Specifically, MarketTrak disclaims any and all warranties, expressed or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability, profitability, and fitness for a particular purpose. In no event shall you hold MarketTrak liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, or consequential damages of any kind whatsoever. You bear full responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions. Nothing in our forecasts should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, or to take any specific action. The opinions or comments expressed may change without notice. You determine if and how the forecast is used in your investments. You recognize that past performance does not indicate future results. Click here for a complete disclosure of our disclaimer. Page Top

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