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MarketTrak Question/Comment Message |
Posted By: Jim Date: Wed Sep 19, 2007 |
Title: Curious Model 8.2 vs 12.1...2 Questions |
Message: |
Response: The rally yesterday was not predicted because the big drop in interest rates was unexpected and therefore not reflected in the market data input to the model. Shocks like this can be protected through the use of stops or other hedging strategies. Thursday update: Our development program has produced many acceptable models. Most are still being evaluated and analyzed. Version 12 is the latest model but there have been other very good ones like version 7 and version 8. Even version 2 produces very accurate results. Our work on model building will continue until we are satisfied that we have found one that will produce profitable results over a long period of time and with minimal drawdowns. |