Posted By: Walt   Date: Thu Mar 6, 2008

Title: Trading a Dow or DIA Put

Message:
  Using the Dow or DIA currently at 121.97, I want to sell a March 125 Put at 4.00 which is approximately the going rate at 9.35 am EST today. What are the odds percentage wise that the DIA will close above 125.00 on March 21, 2008? This is what I was trying to learn in the previous question yesterday. I am trying to concretize my question to get a concrete answer.

Response:
  Our model does not say anything about where the market will be on that date. Our signal may change several times before your option expires. The signal currently looks like it is moving towards a long position which would favor your short put position. But that could change. I suggest you read our About page for details on what we forecast.