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MarketTrak Question/Comment Message |
Posted By: David Date: Wed Jul 9, 2008 |
Title: New models should reflect old results |
Message: |
Response: This has been a concern of mine as well. The question is just how do you accumulate returns from different models. The previous model had a return of about 10 percent in 90 days. Should I start this new model with a 10 percent gain? That might be misleading since this new model might not do as well as the previous one, but it would look initially like it was. My solution at this time is to include a link to the last forecast made with the previous model so you can see how it did. Since the models are similar, you could assume some continuity of returns. Rich
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